When a team shows you who they really are -- listen and learn (and then make the bet!)

NBA Playoff Rewind: What caused the crazed public to bet the choking Suns in last Sunday’s critical Game 4?

For those who missed the news and final score, last Sunday night the Minnesota Timberwolves cruised to yet another breeze of a win against the Phoenix Suns, sweeping the first round playoff series 4 games to 0.

For a team loaded with talent and experience that was expected to contend for the NBA Finals, yet another early postseason exit was devastating for Phoenix. The entire Suns organization faces monumental decisions this coming offseason.

As for Minnesota, I won’t pretend to know much about this team. None of my wagering in this story has much to do with the Timberwolves. Sometimes, betting against a team is a higher-confidence wager than betting on a team.

That’s precisely the situation I’ll describe here.

If it looks too good to be true, it's too good to be true.

Easy Money?

I had no rooting interest in the playoff series, except as a bettor. I've been watching Phoenix closely all season long. The Suns were thought to be a major threat to the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets. However, they struggled often and ended up as the sixth seed in the Western Conference. Hence, they were forced to play tough competition -- and most would agree, superior opponents -- in the playoffs. In short, the Suns appeared to be a vastly overrated team destined for a postseason collapse. They were the perfect team to fade.

I’ll say it again, since they’re paying me by the word: Sometimes, betting against a team is a higher-confidence wager than betting on a team.

Phoenix faced Minnesota in the first round. Even Minnesota bettors probably didn’t see the outcome would be so one-sided.

The Timberwolves toyed with the Suns in the first three games, winning by 25, 12, and 17 point margins, respectively. The Game 3 defeat was particularly gut-punching for Suns fans and their backers, who were laying -4. Typically, NBA teams down 0-2 in playoff series and then returning home in Game 3 have produced nearly 70 percent winners for more than a decade. Yet, Phoenix once again collapsed and failed to deliver.

The stage was set for an apparent -- no, make that obvious -- mismatch in Game 4. After Game 3’s brutal loss, Phoenix was spent. Done. Burned. Toast. Their opponent, Minnesota also happened to be playing great basketball.

The Pre-Game Numbers

Prior to the lines coming out for Game 4, I expected the opening spread to be Minnesota -3 – or perhaps even -4. Anyone who watched the previous three playoff games saw utter domination and a team that wasn’t just defeated. It looked like they were beat and they knew it. Perhaps even more weighty for Phoenix, the home fans turned on the Suns. After their third consecutive double-digit defeat, social media, including many Suns' fans, ravaged their team for an obvious lack of effort and poor performance.

Imagine my surprise when the line came out for Game 4 at Minnesota -1. That line was off by at least 2 to 3 points, and even at my hypothetical number, I'd still back the Timberwolves. This looked like easy money, which sometimes is a phantom perception when it comes to sports betting. If it looks too good to be true, it's too good to be true.

And so, I was running around Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. I had about $1,200 in winning tickets to cash from the previous day. I planned to roll the entire winnings into a single wager on Minnesota -1. I also loved the OVER at 211, since the three previous playoff games had all soared OVER the posted total. That said, the Timberwolves side looked as easy a wager as anything you'll see in NBA playoff betting.

A few minutes before tipoff, I approached the counter at the sportsbook. I was debating whether or not to bet $1,200 on the Timberwolves and then place a little $600 sugar bet on the OVER, you know just for shits and giggles. But we’re all subject to the Butterfly effect.

Thing is, we all get distracted at times and I'm the worst when it comes to running into people and getting into sidebar conversations. Anyway, I ran into a gambling colleague, said my hellos and goodbyes, and by the time I was back in line, the spread on the game had moved to Phoenix -1 and the total increased to 213.

What the fuck? Running into a friend had cost me a full point in the O/U. But, I'd also gained the +1 (from -1 previously) on the Timberwolves.

I don’t know if that made it a push, or not. But, I wish I hadn’t run into that friend.

Who’s Right vs. Who’s Wrong?

Minnesota is now +1?

Wait. What's going on here? What morons are betting Phoenix? Why would the line cross the zero? What would compel anyone who watched even a second of this playoff series to jump on Phoenix?

"Oh yeah, the Suns got their asses kicked by 54 points in three previous blowouts....the home fans are booing the team....the coach is making excuses....and the Suns look spent and done.” And people bet enough money on Phoenix a few minutes prior to gametime causing the line to move to the Suns as the favorite?

In sports gambling, this is called getting "spooked." Surely, I must have missed some key info. Breaking news. An injury. Sickness. The fix is in. Something. There had to be an excuse for this anomaly that had no reasonable explanation.

Part of me said, nevermind. Plow forward. In fact, bet more. Go to the ATM machine. Withdraw another $500. They're giving you extra points! What more do you want?

Maybe it was the previous distraction. Perhaps it was just being short on time. It might have just been a sense of not being tied into the latest breaking news and being paranoid about being on the wrong side of a bet. So, I passed on the side and instead plowed $1,260 onto the total -- OVER 213 points.

Then and there, I heard an inner voice: What the hell is wrong with you? Grow a pair. Bet the Timberwolves.

Nope, I didn’t listen.

A Mixed Blessing and a Jaded Victory

This story has a happy ending. Kinda’. Sorta’. I also have to admit that the final result still stings a little.

Like many bettors, I'm swayed by the things I see and hear. I’m only human. Even as a contrarian bettor (someone who typically bets against public perceptions and line moves), I couldn't pull the money trigger and blast away. So, I missed a relatively easy win in Game 4 betting on Minnesota.

Final Score: Timberwolves 122, Suns 116

At least the OVER got there and it was easy. But I did leave money on the table. And that bothers me.

Write This Down: The Lesson

I share this story in order to learn from it. Perhaps others too will gain something from the experience. Sure, it's just one game. A single bet. There’s also one important lesson, should we heed the opportunity.

When a team shows us who they are, not just in recent games but all season long, we should watch and listen. We should also learn, and then when the opportunity presents itself -- we should bet.

Such situations do not come around often, so it's paramount to take full advantage of such circumstances. And while double checking late news reports and being aware of late line moves can be valuable, unless we see some evidence of what moves a line, we usually should dismiss it.

Yes, I won money on that game. However, I also lost money on that game. Perhaps the real win is in what I learned, and shared here.

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About the Writer: Always opinionated and often controversial, Nolan Dalla writes pretty much whatever he wants. That can sometimes be dangerous. His betting advice, gambling stories, restaurant reviews, movie opinions, political diatribes, tributes, and personal insults can be found daily at his website: www.nolandalla.com. Nolan also goes on massive tilt when losing, and is known for some epic, profanity-laden rants. He's now a regular contributor to Betcoin.