Understanding the Probabilities Of Poker Outcomes - Odds!

The thing is that the more you play, the more runner runners you are going to see, solely due to to the longer time that you spend on the felt but how often do these outcomes happen percent wise in the long run?

by Betcoin on August 10th, 2017

It does not matter whether you have played poker for a few days or years, each and every one of us has seen some unbelievable poker run outs happen. The thing is that the more you play, the more runner runners you are going to see, solely due to to the longer time that you spend on the felt but how often do these outcomes happen percent wise in the long run? Let's find out by taking a closer look at some of the common poker spots and then you can use this information to annoy your table neighbors.

Cowboys into Rockets (KK vs. AA)

Let's be honest, there is very little to fear at the table pre-flop whenever you are dealt two kings but despite your cowboys looking damn extravagant in the pocket then usually this little feeling of "maybe my op got aces" will still remain, especially if facing counter-aggression.

In reality, if you are playing your opponent heads-up then you will be facing aces once every 220 hands but if this action is taking place at a full-ring table then the odds change drastically and you should expect to see aces once every 26 times. Still quite a long-shot!

Set Over Set

Any self-respectable poker player should know that the probability of flopping a set with your pocket pair is roughly 7.5 or 1. Meaning that one time out of every eight you will flop your three of a kind. However, the likelihood of your opponent flopping a set at the same time with you is about 100 to 1. This taking into accounts that both of the players have the pocket pair already.

If you are playing a 9-max poker table then you will see a set over set roughly once every 1200 hands and that with the assumption that every player at the table plays every pocket pair that they are dealt.

Quads Over Quads

You will experience quite a few of the three of a kind's cracked during your poker career but what about the bigger brother hand, quads? The odds of you hitting quads with your pocket pair if you play the hand out until the river is somewhere around 123 to 1 or 0.8163%. Looks quite a low right but still more likely than getting dealt aces pre-flop which is 0.4525%.

You have probably seen some poker videos where pros complain about their once in a lifetime beat and it usually consists of quads being beaten by the higher quads. But how likely is for that to happen? Both players holding a pocket pair and play it out until the river then both of them will hit quads once every 39 thousand hands...

250 Thank You Freeroll Ticket
It is normal to remember your losses much more vividly than the wins and usually, emotion can cloud the judgment but in the long-run numbers always run out the way that they are supposed to. Have you ever had any of the above-listed outcomes happen to you? Share your story and earn a 250 Thank Your Freeroll Ticket. The 5 best answers will be granted a ticket. One entry per person and this expires 12, August 2017 at 20:00 EST. Ever been blessed to be on the receiving end of winning quads over quads? Share your online poker experience at Betcoin.ag in the comments below!

 Filed under: Poker, Probability

32 Comments

michigan1: yep
Thu, 08/10/2017 - 18:42

Yes i once had and just recently in a cash game floped quad queens with qqs in my hand,flop was QQK ..They ended up getting all there money in on that flop and of course i called they had pocket KKs and of course they riverd there k for quads over mine :( was brutal.

HowItdo: I've never had Quads over
Thu, 08/10/2017 - 20:53

I've never had Quads over Quads but KK vs AA and Set over Set are so common that I don't even sweat it. It's like a day in the life for me. However Quad over Quad is super rare because you don't play every pocket pair till the river. However the closest I got was in a MTT where I had JJ all in pre and the flop comes Jxx turn/river 88 and was sad. Had the flop came another jack I would have seen Quads over Quads.

oriole: Never had quads over quads,
Thu, 08/10/2017 - 23:22

Never had quads over quads, but recently I lost with Ace high flush vs straight flush. I thought I was trapping him, but it turned out that I was the one being trapped. I see sets over sets at least once a week and I don't even play that much.

OneTime: I mostly play plo so I see
Fri, 08/11/2017 - 01:08

I mostly play plo so I see coolers like sets over sets quite a lot. Quads over quads and straight/royal flushes vs quads happen once in a while as well.

One of my biggest cash game pots was when I was bluffing on flop and turn with flush draw and hit royal flush on river. The other guy called my all in and lost with quads queens.

jramy: Haha let's speak about this,
Fri, 08/11/2017 - 02:21

Haha let's speak about this, i'm usually on the gifted end of the spectrum getting higher trips than the villain. I was on a heads up table 0.25/0.5. So I get dealt JT, I raised 1.4chips. Villain called the flop is K93. I flop a straight draw I raised to 5.4 villain raised to 23. I called, the turn is the magical Q. I went all in villain called with KK. The river ended with a 6. Raked in a nice amount of chips that time. The probabilities of that hand was amazing and glad I wasn't on his end xD
You should always appreciate when you win a hand because you could have been in your villains positions :P

oriole: Your story makes no sense.
Fri, 08/11/2017 - 04:49

Your story makes no sense.
1. Villain only calls with kings?
2. The pot is 2.8 and you bet 5.4?
3. You call massive 4x 3bet with only 4 outs to win?
4. You shove instead of letting him bet? You shut down all his bluffs.

Is this how the games are played at 0.25/0.5 mbtc?

jramy: So?
Fri, 08/11/2017 - 05:35

I never said we or I played good, if just a recreational player who loves to gamble :/
Also why would all games at 0.25/0.5 play like this? Probably we were just both recreational players who came to have fun and not stress our selves out.

oriole: Fair enough.
Fri, 08/11/2017 - 06:19

Fair enough.

poolios: Not my bad beat, but I was at
Fri, 08/11/2017 - 10:03

Not my bad beat, but I was at the table (about a week ago).

The very first hand of a HoldEm tournament. Raise, 3-bet, 4-bet.... then three players are all-in preflop.

Players show their cards:  Ad Ac, Kh Ks, As Kd

Board comes Qd 10d 9d Jd 8d

The *six* card straight flush is the insult after the injury.

jcmillionman: Poker Understanding
Fri, 08/11/2017 - 17:19

My Set Over Set happened at a time when I most needed it, Tunica Mississippi @ golde strike casino.. Was dealt pocket 88 other player had 55 flop came 8-5-k ...I I bet out he min raise I jam allin..rest history! Won 1st place in the nightly second chance tournament!!! $4800 Cheers all!!!

shahidbaloch: thanks betcoin.ag team this
Fri, 08/11/2017 - 19:46

thanks betcoin.ag team this is one in the best post from Most popular Bitcoin site for me..lets see below how.
Independently saying never had Quads over Quads and my best quads is queen trough which i beat Quads K and Quads A and all but just defeated by quads T.
90% success over all quads included Quads A and K .. And 10 % success with Quads T.
Thanks Betcoin.ag and Good Luck To all.

shandefoye: Another nice day n betcoin
Fri, 08/11/2017 - 21:24

Another nice day n betcoin with another top post.
Texex holdem PL is best game for understanding probability of out com.
I am not included in top class player but got many chips and finished 1st many time by full study in Limit Games.cos there there no amateurish for rais All Inn.
And there's also good chances of beat Quads with 3of kind flush streight.so not actualy focus on Quads over Quads.

REDSCARFACE: A while back ago I literally
Fri, 08/11/2017 - 22:51

A while back ago I literally had a pants full of brown butterfly's. I had double deuces and on the flop 22A pops of course what do you thinks going to happen? Boom. I man Like a big red brick hitting the table at extreme force. Half my stack goes down. I get called of course. So on flop It was either a 8 or jack, "this was a little while back". So I figure why not all in? who wouldn't with a quad? This man calls! what do you think happend? Did the river turn out to be a dozen roses smelling my beautiful house up, or a wicked new nasty spray they call butt juice? Well to say these butterfly's kept stinging like there were turning into nasty mean African killer bees, it flopped a A. Well there went a bubble in the K.O tourney. At least I was paid for my knock outs but still mad I bubbled with a quad. Couldn't been a better match I played in my life. To this day I still would have played it! I was hoping a fold after I dropped my second half of my stack on a 8 or jack but, this player of course had a bigger stack and enough to loose. :(.

ITEAnonymous: luck vs math
Fri, 08/11/2017 - 23:31

Counting your probability makes interesting but sometimes it's very funny. My favorite hand is pocket Jacks while my hated hand is pocket Kings. Yes, pocket jacks is my favorite even it is the worst hand you caN get. Why? because I won this hand as a quads or trips many times than winning my pocket kings.

my pocket kings always beaten by Ax must worst with just A2o. But pockets jacks seems so work everytime.

Probability will in your side in the long run but sometimes there's a clown in every hand.

I lose my pocket jacks vs 23s. When he 3bet me and flop 2pair haha.

abdou: Evaluate my envelopes
Sat, 08/12/2017 - 00:05

When my business failed, you were there.

tngheu: Lesson
Sat, 08/12/2017 - 06:27

I have a story with AA. I was by AA. I RAISE SMALL AND. THE RIVER SHOW 55K. I bet, he.raise all in. I think i win. When he shows K9. But poker is right. K output. Present and I. Complete. Chip set, as well. Not. That is a lesson

winawyna: Never had quads over quads
Sat, 08/12/2017 - 08:13

Never had quads over quads but set over set, Kk vs AA oh many times..I remember a day wen I had so many bad beats it seemed like they were after me..had set of fives only for my opponent to show set of eights..almost smashed my computer..but this things happen and one should always keep it in mind.. nice one

Belth: Everyone who plays poker
Sat, 08/12/2017 - 08:26

Everyone who plays poker experiences set over set. It's a pretty regular way to lose/win big pots. Not to say it happens often, just that those are usually big hands. Only lost quads over quads once and it was omaha. Because.. well omaha..

Mrboozo: My favourite game is plo
Sat, 08/12/2017 - 09:12

My favourite game is plo where I see sets over sets quite quads over quads with 80℅ .
Once I enjoys in plot in promocode tourny..I bluff on flop and turn with flush draw then hitting royal flush on river and then after opposed player call my all in and lost with quard king.

badmarsh: 1st of all thanks betcoin.ag
Sat, 08/12/2017 - 09:31

1st of all thanks betcoin.ag for posting & rewards of freeroll ticket in free while other sites demand for deposit.
Now lets come to the point. My vote is for sets instead of quads because i loss many time having major quads. I glad when have major quads like double Ace or Dual Kings but luck wasnt with me in that strong hands thats mean poker is poker.

Lemmon714: quads over quads
Sat, 08/12/2017 - 13:11

In 10+ years of playing tons of poker, a few million hands online, I have only lost with quads once and never won with quads over quads to my recollection. On a site that no longer exists I was playing some kind of "points buy-in" tourney that had decent payouts for the top 9. With 10 players left I flop quad eights and get all in with a player holding AA and he hits runner runner quad aces. Bubbled the tourney by losing with quad 8's, lol. So only once for me. Very very rare occurance for sure.

xiyanxook: Best for me is sets over sets
Sat, 08/12/2017 - 14:11

Best for me is sets over sets really like when crush some one with sets over sets.
Once playing nhl cash game raise all inn on flop and bb call and other fold i have 8 t in heart and bb have kk result i beat him with streight flush.

BluffingYou: Quads over quads have
Sat, 08/12/2017 - 15:51

Quads over quads have happened to me 2 times. Both times happened in live games and one time I was on receiving end of bad beat and the second time I won the tournament with quad aces over quads queens. So much for these things to happen only at online.

0163908908: nearly win
Sat, 08/12/2017 - 16:00

I can remember . I play good at tour when starting. But when I reach final.table I feel so bad. It hard to play scare and so hot make me decide some.bad.thing. Many need a couple of caml down or lost all thing you has all.time.before

DoubleT: ALT accounts
Sun, 08/13/2017 - 01:28

Have lost set over set gazillion billion times, but quad over quad squad only maximum 10 times. The most painful was when I flopped quads against 4 opponents. I was all in pre, but they kept on playing. 77XQQ and lost to pocket ladies. Also @Betcoin I think few of posters here are alt accounts as of identical syntax expression #conspiracy101

Blindme: I know three accounts here
Sun, 08/13/2017 - 17:25

I know three accounts here that are connected based on choice of words and chip dumping. Reported them and my tickets vanished after I spent a day connected them in past threads.
Be interesting if you are pointing to the same three accounts, they used to give each other a thumbs up for posting as well. Was pretty obvious since very few other comments had as many thumbs up.
What can you do, I reported and thats as far as it can go.

Underworld: I can`t count this...
Sun, 08/13/2017 - 11:14

I can`t count how many times I lose from stronger full, stronger flesh, stronger set...like zillion times. Few days ago I play cash game here, and I had Q 2 hearts and what a crazy hand I thought I was strong hahaha, flop was 5 7 7 (two hearts) then king heart. So three of us, in the end 1 guy had full house on flop (set of fives), 2 guy had ace 3 hearts. I was the weakest in that hand.
And also I remember when I had King 6, flop was 10 K K, i thought I`m strong but turn was 6 and I thought i was very strong with that full. In the and I lost guy had full on flop with that 10. And I have like million similar stories.

jramy: /
Sun, 08/13/2017 - 21:36

The tickets in this topic have been sent out?

runrrunr: Min Cash Crushed
Sun, 08/13/2017 - 23:20

I was super deep in on of the big tourneys. I had satellited into it (maybe a 20k, can't recall). Had played right, made a decent stack, was about middle of the pack. Dealt A4d UTG and limped at a full ring. The hand before the bubble had popped and we were ITM. Four limpers including BB. Flop comes Ac Jd 8d. I check, one min bet, BB raises 1/2 pot, I call, rest fold. Good news. Turn is 7d. I'm over the moon because BB is nearly even stack with me (slightly under) and his chips would put me near lead. I bet 1/4 pot, BB thinks and then calls. River comes off suit Q. I bet 1/2 pot, hoping for a call. BB tanks, shoves, I snap it off and see the roll over of 910d. I'm short stacked, out in two more hands when I run AJ into AQ. still made money, but what a brutal loss in such a clutch position.

Betcoin: 250 Tickets have been added.
Tue, 08/15/2017 - 18:49

250 Tickets have been added. Thank you to all of our participants.

Rafaelgonza: Perfect opposite bad beat
Thu, 08/17/2017 - 10:48

The worst bad bead I ever endured was while i played at Hollywood Park in Inglewood. The game was no limit Hold'em 40-100 buy-in one 1/2blinds. I was in my favorite position as small blind (for several reasons not to be revealed) and i felt confident with my pocket 2's at this point with 3 players folding and the rest calling the big blind. I was sure I had a good chance of making a set so i raised preflop to 10. There went 3 more players flooding their hands. Important to note that player after big blind decides to straddle bet, and without much thought he calls my raise. I felt no threat since he straddled, assuming he was bluffing. So 3 players left preflop I felt confident. Then the flop reveals 2 3 3. I had no doubt ever I had this hand sealed. But showing no emotion, I can check. Straddler raises . Other players folds. I call. Next card dealt was K. Neutral to us but I raise pot size again to start cashing in my win. Instead of folding or even calling the dirt bag (lol just kidding) goes all in. I was counting his chips as mine already this hand was in my pocket. I smirked and called his raise. Last card was A and with both all in I flip my cards and reveal my 3's full of 2's triumphantly. Then my heart sunk as the guy reveals a 2 3. 2's full of 3's. Exactly opposite but slightly better hand and with that took the pot. Pretty bad . I'll never forget that day.

timkoy99: well, recently in an MDS Mega
Fri, 08/18/2017 - 02:34

well, recently in an MDS Mega-100 Super Freebuy tourney, I came out on the winning end of what I can only imagine were incredible odds for both myself and my opponent. There was a third who had gone all-in pre-flop, and I and another called for ~1,000 each. I with my King of Spades and my 3 of diamonds had a pair of threes with the flop. We both check, with the turn a useless 8, and his ~30,000 chips standing across from my ~10,000 chips, He bets ~1500, I call, and the river card reveals itself as...A KING! woot! now I've got two pair, but the community cards show 3 hearts (K, 10, 8) and two Spades (3,4). He bets 3300, I raise to 6600 and he raises to 9900! I go all in, with my 39 remaining chips. We show. He too has a King! but alas, the poor soul holds a useless 6 beside it! He is returned his unanswered 3300, and thus I pocket a fiesty 19,878 chips. What blew my mind was that both he and I had held out for the river of dreams, which brought us both the King we wanted, but had he gotten a six instead, he would've had the upper hand over my meaasly pair of threes. Why we both got so stubborn up until the last, I'll never quite care to know. But damn, did it feel good.

You must be logged in to comment