2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 97
LOSSES — 88
PUSH — 3
NET WIN/LOSS — -$585
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 3-7 (-$475)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,415
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 14):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 14 REPORT HERE
Player Prop -- GB vs. DET: LIONS RB J. JACOBS OVER 68.5 rushing yards (-115) {L}
Full-Game Total -- ATL vs. MIN OVER 45.5 points {W}
Player Prop -- LV-TB: LV QB O'CONNELL OVER 235.5 {L}
Moneyline -- CLE vs. PIT: STEELERS (-275) {W}
Full-Game Side -- CLE vs. PIT: STEELERS -6.5 {W}
Full-Game Side -- SEA vs. ARZ: ARIZONA -2.5 {L}
Moneyline -- CHI vs. SFO: BEARS (+165) {L}
Full-Game Side -- CHI vs. SFO: BEARS +3.5 {L}
First-Half Side -- CIN vs. DAL: COWBOYS +3.5 (-120) {L}
Full-Game Side -- CIN vs. DAL: COWBOYS +5.5 {L}
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 15)
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: RAMS VS. 49ERS
Many of us thought San Francisco was burned toast after a couple of dismal performances in Weeks 12-13, amplified by a losing record and last-place standing in the NFC West. Then to our surprise, the 49ers finally showed up and played their best game of the season in a thorough ass-kicking of the Bears last week. Hello??? Will the real 49ers please stand up?
Fact is, San Francisco remains burdened by injuries. This is not the same team we saw as a Super Bowl contender in 2023. I'm also going to project the 49ers won't play nearly as well as we saw in the Bears game, but won't be as bad as the team we saw get steamrolled by Buffalo and Green Bay, either. That means San Francisco lands somewhere in the middle and now faces its division rival in what looks to be a "must win" game for both teams.
Conversely, the LA Rams have been the far more consistent team lately, winners of 6 of their last 8, and those two losses were to Philadelphia and Miami. Along the way, the Rams have defeated the 11-2 Vikings, 10-3 Bills, and 8-5 Seahawks. Meanwhile, please show me a quality win by the 49ers, so far (okay, maybe the first game beating Seattle). The Rams won the first game when hosting SFO, and that was when LA was short-handed. Now, things are reversed and the Rams look to be the more solid team.
Giving the Rams +3 makes this an easy choice. Getting +2.5 (which was the early line) isn't nearly as attractive. Given the 49ers were -3.5 point favorites last week hosting floundering Chicago which had just fired their coach, this sure seems to be a strange number given the Rams are a much tougher opponent. Division rivalries tend to be good spots to take underdogs anyway, so when we also get the more consistent team with the better record that's also racked up more quality wins, that makes the doggie wager much easier.
Let's also note that San Francisco has been an underachiever all season long, as evidenced by a poor 5-8 ATS mark. Perhaps it's the old post-Super-Bowl-jinx and hangover. While the Niners were hit hard with injuries this season, and that adds to their problems, RB C. McCaffrey now out for the season is probably the final nail in the 2024 49ers coffin. It's one thing for them to bounce back and beat a Bears team last week that had lost six straight, but it's quite another to try and slow down one of the best offensive trios in the game -- Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp -- who are healthy again and in top form. Even if the Niners play a good game, I say it's still going to be close, and the dog should cover getting the added bonus of a FG on the spread.
Picks:
First-Half Side -- LAR vs. SFO: RAMS +1.5 (-110)
Full-Game Side -- LAR vs. SFO: RAMS +3 (-120)
RAVENS VS. GIANTS: CONTRARIAN BET
- It's easy to see why many bettors would fall in love with Ravens RB Derrick Henry this week. Baltimore comes off a bye and now faces one of the worst teams –and most porous defense– in the NFL. One would expect Henry, who is enjoying an All-Pro season in his first year with the Ravens, to run crazy wild and rack up lots of sick stats. Indeed, perhaps that will happen, but I'll wager the other side of the player prop based on some suspicion that Baltimore could very well mail it in here with a lackluster effort. In player rushing yardage props, it's highly unusual to see any O/U lined at 100+ yards. The only comparable NFL RB at this point to Henry is Barkley (PHI) and his yardage O/Us tend to be in the high-80s to mid-90s. Listing Henry above 100 is as high a player rushing total as I’ve seen this season, though I don't have access to any data that proves this. One key stat to look at when handicapping rushing and receiving props is "touches" or "targets." With OVERs….we want lots of touches. We can't control how many yards any skill position player will gain. But assumptions can be made based on how many plays he touches the ball. Looking at Henry's numbers, his rushing attempts range from 11 (low) to 24 (high). That means a projection of 18-20 is probably warranted. Even with a few extra carries because Baltimore is likely to be ahead means Henry will need to be fed around 20 carries to break this total. That said, could see fewer carries than normal. I don't see any reason why Baltimore would feel the need wear down Henry, who is one of the Ravens most dependable offensive weapons, especially not this week, and certainly not with the "game of the year" on deck next week versus Pittsburgh, which has become a must-win for Baltimore. So, why feed Henry the ball 20+ times, wear him down, and risk injury in a game the Ravens should win easily? Note that Baltimore has given Henry 19 carries or fewer in 8 of 13 games this season. Henry has failed to eclipse this yardage number (102.5) in 7 of 13 games. Sure, the Giants are as bad an opponent as Baltimore has faced this season. However, I don't know why the Ravens would spend Henry with a heavy burden of carries given what's ahead for Baltimore in the next 3 games/weeks, plus the postseason. Everywhere you look on fantasy sports media, the headline this week is something like "Derrick Henry Ready to Explode," and similar hype. I'm certain that's driven up this number by 5-10 yards. Hence, I'll fade the popular consensus and take advantage of some added value to the UNDER side of this player prop.
Pick:
BAL vs. NYG: Ravens RB Henry UNDER 102.5 rushing yards (-115)
RAVENS VS. GIANTS: BETTING A GOOD NUMBER
- The Giants may be the worst team in the NFL right now, especially at home. In tact, NYG offense averages just 10.1 PPG at home, the lowest scoring average in the league. So, it's counterintuitive to wager on any NYG player's point total to go OVER. However, the line on this player prop appears to be an overreaction. Giants' PK Gano is listed at O/U 4.5, which is as low a number as we see on kickers. even those on bad teams. Actually, a bad team could make the kicker more likely to accumulate points since those offenses frequently can't complete drives with touchdown, stall near or inside the red zone, and are thus forced to settle for FGs. Gano is a veteran kicker (330/386 FGs over the course of his long career) who can usually be counted on to deliver. And the Giants offense can’t possibly play worse than we've seen over the past few weeks. Assuming there's any improvement, Gano should get a few attempts (even in the last two blowouts, Gano has two FG attempts in each game). Also worth consideration–the Ravens defense has been torched by a number of opponents this season, even by bad teams. They rank #24 in points allowed and #22 in yards allowed. I'm counting on NYG to produce something on the scoreboard. But what I'm really betting here is the bargain-basement low number, which at 4.5 means all it takes to hit the OVER is either…two successful FGs, or one FG and two XPs.
Pick:
BAL vs. NYG: Giants Kicker Gano OVER 4.5 points
NY JETS VS. JACKSONVILLE: JAGUARS FOR THE 1H AND THE GAME
- Okay, I need your help on this one. Someone please explain to me why the 3-10 NY Jets are laying points in the road to anybody right now. The line even moved from -3 to -3.5, which says there's still faith in this team coming from somewhere. Explain it to me like I'm a child, because I do not understand. How is a team that's won exactly ONE game in its last NINE laying more than a FG? They've been just as bad ATS, posting a 2-5 mark on the road. Haven't Jets' backers lost enough money yet? Aren't they bankrupt by now? I totally understand contrarian wagering and taking teams in a slump. But that's when the bad team has line value, which usually means as an underdog. The Jets have the opposite of that. Actually, it's the Jags with the line value in this matchup. For all the Jags problems, they don't appear to have thrown in the towel, just yet. JAX comes off a road win last week, and a feisty 3-point loss to Houston the week before. JAX has also faced a murderous schedule recently, versus HOU, MIN, DET, PHI, and GB--covering in 4 of those 5 games. Also note that 8/10 JAX losses this season were by a TD or less. This looks like a tossup to me, and both sides will be looking at the matchup as a winnable game. The Jags were an attractive bet at +3. Now, at +3.5, JAX is a mandatory wager. Overall, the Jets are 4-9 against the spread this season. The Jaguars are 8-5 against the spread this season. One more stat: Former Patriots’ QB Jone, now starting for JAX, is 5-0 in his career against the Jets. Seriously, are there really bettors out there taking the Jets and laying this number?
Pick:
NYJ vs. JAX: First-Half: Jaguars +2.5
NYJ vs. JAX: Full Game: Jaguars +3.5 (-120)
KANSAS CITY VS. CLEVELAND: BROWNS TEAM TOTAL UNDER
- Kansas City has been winning games with smoke and mirrors all season long. The close games and last-second miracles have now started to skew the lines. Typically, a Super Bowl champion which is 12-1 and riding high, next up facing a 3-10 team going nowhere might be favored by a full touchdown or more, even on the road. But the Chiefs at just 5-8 ATS have burned lots of bankrolls. Now flip the script, and we catch them at a rare bargain price, inside the key number of 4 (the line has moved to -4.5 in some places, which is not playable IMHO). Accordingly, this might be the week to jump on Kansas City, which should return to dominant form at some point. Meanwhile, the Browns last gasp may have come last week when they were steamrolled badly by Pittsburgh. QB Winston is certainly capable of producing yardage and points. But this week he'll likely face unfavorable conditions with a gameday forecast for cold rain and windy conditions. If we take away the Browns passing game, they're really outmatched. Kansas City is a team built for these conditions as we rarely see adverse weather affect the Chiefs. KC has held its last two opponents to 17 points. I predict they'll do something similar here. The Browns could muster just 14 points last week and should struggle again. Note when number shopping that it's critical to catch a win on the key number of 20, and since the Browns team total is currently listed at O/U 20.5 (-120), this becomes a very playable number. Cleveland has scored 14 points or fewer in 3 of the 5 games QB Winston has started this season.
Pick:
KC vs. CLE: Team Total Browns UNDER 20.5 (-120)
PITTSBURGH VS. PHILADELPHIA: THREE WAGERS
- Here's another matchup where I don't understand the pointspread. These two teams are much closer in talent than the number indicates. At 10-3, Pittsburgh has won 7 of its last 8 games. The defense ranks #5 in the league and the Steelers offense has been consistently good since QB Russell took over. PIT HC Mike Tomlin is arguably the best underdog coach in history, evidenced by a 60 percent career cover rate when his Steelers are getting points. In fact, Tomlin is 44-40 SU in his head coaching career as an underdog--the only head coach in the modern era to have a winning record as an underdog (with a notable number of games). While 11-2 Philadelphia's 9-game winning streak is impressive (remember when Eagles fans wanted HC Nick Sirianni fired back at the end of September?), they haven't been as crisp as their W-L record indicates. Versus CAR last week, if a last-second pass was thrown 6-inches higher at the goal line, the Panthers would have scored a late TD and upset the Eagles. PHI also blew a big lead hosting JAX a month ago and barely escaped with a win. The Eagles are just 1-4 ATS at home this season. PHI WR AJ Brown raised concerns this week in the Eagles' locker room when he called out the offense (and QB Hurts) for substandard performance, which is an unusual criticism to hear among a first-place 11-2 team with a legitimate shot to be the NFC's top-seed. To the Eagles' credit, they have risen to the occasion and beat good teams this season, and perhaps they play up or down to their level of competition. Nonetheless, I'll go with the Steelers to keep this within the margin of +5.5 points. /// Also note the Eagles' record as notoriously slow starters. They remain one of the NFL's worst first-quarter teams. Incredibly, the Eagles are dead last (#32) in 1Q scoring this season, at a pitiful 1.3 PPG. However, PHI continues to win, so perhaps the game plan is to start conservatively, then ramp up the offense later in games. This isn't a fluke. Under Sirianni last season, the Eagles ranked #23 in 1Q scoring, despite a winning record. So, this has become a pattern with plenty of evidence. Now, the Eagles are LAYING POINTS in the first frame? Huh? Thank goodness no one apparently is paying attention to this trend, nor betting on it. I first uncovered it back in October (posting several comments on this unusual stat), and missed the boat many times since because I figured it had to reverse at some point and the numbers would RTTM. Instead, the Eagles continue to stink in the first quarter, yet win games. I'll ride the anti-PHI 1Q angle this week and take the Steelers who are getting a half point at slightly elevated vig. /// Finally, guess who leads the NFL in scoring? It's Pittsburgh kicker Chris Boswell, who is averaging 10 PPG with his leg. The former Rice Owl is a money kicker (36/39 FGs). His point total is only 6.5 in this game, with no added juice (it should be up around -130). Based on the 6.5 O/U, Boswell would have exceeded this number in 10 of his 13 games this season. Even against a good defense like the Eagles, he should be able to deliver enough points to cross to 7+. One more factor: The Eagles have been a very good red zone defense. If Pittsburgh moves the ball and stalls later in drives, that likely adds to his number of attempts. PHI is #6 in red zone defense, allowing TDs about 48 pct. of the time, which means Boswell should get enough chances to crack this point total. /// I have enough action on this game already, but at +210 the Steelers also might be worth a bet on the moneyline. Sure, the Eagles deserve to be favored, but they would not win 2/3rds of the games played between these two, thus giving value to betting the dog.
Picks:
PIT vs. PHI: 1st Qtr. Steelers +.5 (half point) {-120)
PIT vs. PHI: Steelers +5.5
PIT vs. PHI: Steelers Kicker Boswell OVER 6.5 points
DALLAS VS. CAROLINA: JUST FOR KICKS
- It's tough to predict what mental condition the Cowboys will be in after blowing the chance for an upset victory at home on MNF last week, now having to go on the road and face a surprisingly-productive "bad" team that may look at this matchup as a chance to make a bold statement (beating the Cowboys is always a big deal). Many fans point to the blown blocked kick fiasco, but what cost the Cowboys the victory was stupidity; Dallas' play calling last week was obscene (early in 4Q, they were averaging 6.4 YPC rushing the ball and were well on the way to running for 200 plus on the ground, and the backup QB Rush could only muster 50 pct. completions and 5.0 YPP on passing attempts.....so with the game on the line and a 3-point margin, Dallas abandoned the run completely and threw almost every down----a totally idiotic play-calling strategy when the Bengals were giving up a whopping 6+ YPC). Dallas’ QB can't be trusted to throw a pass more than a few yards. The coaching staff stinks. The team killed off its final shot to make the playoffs. Now, they must go up against Carolina in Charlotte–a team which almost beat both the Chiefs and Eagles. Carolina has won 2 of its last 5, but the losses were by a combined total of just 12 points. More importantly, Carolina's offense now looks legitimate as QB B. Young finally looks like a real NFL QB. All that said, the trouble with betting the Panthers this week is the line is now up to -3. The favorite might be worth betting at -2.5, but not at this number. Instead, I'm fading the opposing kicker because I see the Panthers, who are not a big play offense, grinding out clock and beating Dallas with long drives and time of possession. This could reduce the number of drives the Cowboys get, and also lower the kicking attempts by B. Aubrey, who is admittedly one of the NFL's best kickers (especially long-range). Note that Aubry is priced at 7.5 points this week, which is usually a number reserved for kickers on very good teams. Fact: Dallas is not a good team. And, I can see them coming in flat this week. I'll fade the higher-than-usual O/U for a kicker who hasn't made more than 2 successful FGs in 10 of his last 11 games. Even if he makes 2 FGs in this game, that also requires Dallas to score at least two TDs, and there's no evidence Dallas can be counted on to do that given their season is done and they can’t throw the ball effectively.
Pick:
DAL vs. CAR: Cowboys Kicker Aubrey UNDER 7.5 points (-120)
NEW ENGLAND VS. ARIZONA: CARDINALS MONEYLINE
- Arizona is coming off their most disappointing loss of the season, blowing a chance to jump back into the NFC West race. Instead, they stank on both sides of the ball and were dominated by Seattle in a game that wasn’t close. I don't expect that to happen again, given the opposition is considerably weaker this time around. Arizona has too much talent to lose a game like this one, especially back at home coming off a bad loss. The Cardinals tend to play their best when they're down and not expected to do well. This has been a trademark of the QB K. Murray era -- showing flashes of greatness when there's little at stake, but also imploding in more meaningful games. Both teams are banged up late in the season, but New England is especially thin on defense. This is a great opportunity for Arizona – with a legit running and passing attack – to regain some lost confidence, get back to the .500 mark, and stop a painful losing streak. The Patriots lack the weapons to pose much of a threat, which is why the Cardinals are laying such a high number. I don't want to give -6, but I will toss a unit on the Cardinals moneyline with the expectation they get the W.
Pick:
NWE vs. ARZ: Moneyline Cardinals (-260)
MNF: ATLANTA VS. LAS VEGAS
- Betting on bad teams isn't very smart. It’s also very tricky. But then one bad team is playing versus another bad team, then look at grabbing points when they're available. There's nothing much about the Raiders that inspires confidence in bettors. However, hosting a MNF game is always a boost to any team. When we add the unique circumstances of the Raiders' QB situation this week (Desond Ridder is expected to start) facing his former team from last season, that could give the underdog some added motivation. The former Cincy Bearcat has made more than a dozen NFL starts in his short career, has a 64 pct.completion rate. He’s not really much of a dropoff from the other Raiders' QBs, who are admittedly marginal. He's also grouped with an all-world TE, who is emerging as one of the best in the game at his position. Meanwhile, the wings have been plucked from the chicken-Falcons. Atlanta has lost 4 straight, and two of those defeats were by 3+ touchdowns. QB Kirk Cousins, who was expected to be a key missing piece of the puzzle, is the antithesis of everything about a team leader, incapable of making the players around him better or winning the games that count. Even when surrounded by talent, he still often makes dumb decisions, rarely rising to the occasion when needed. Add his immobility and a mediocre OL, and this isn’t a team to be laying points on the road. At 6-7, the Falcons are still in contention to win a bad division, so perhaps they will win this road game--and cover. But let's also factor in Atlanta playing its fourth game in the last five on the road, while struggling with a 4-game slide. Accordingly, the smarter wager looks to be Las Vegas getting a FG in the first half, a smaller time frame where emotion can carry a team. We can expect the Raiders to be up for a MNF home game and play well for some time, before the Falcons wear down LVR with better talent and more experience. Also note that the dreadful Raiders have also played shockingly well at times recently, evidenced by a near-upset of the Chiefs in KC a few weeks ago and a decent showing at home against Denver the week before. /// I'm adding a player prop, as well, despite getting crushed in that KC game on a similar prop with the Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson, who missed three FGs. Still, Carlson has been reliable making 25/30 attempts and all XPs. Carlson is lined at O/U 6.5 points this week, and that's against a 25th-ranked defense. Carlson has exceeded this point total in 5 of his last 7 games (since the Raiders went to backup QBs). He's had 2+ FG attempts in 6 of his last 7 games. I predict Carlson will get enough tries in this home game to hit the 7-point mark. We also get the added bonus of no juice to the OVER.
Picks:
ATL vs. LVR: 1st Half Raiders +3 (-115)
ATL vs. LVR: Raiders Kicker Carlson OVER 6.5 points
WHICH TEAM WILL SCORE THE MOST POINTS THIS WEEK?
- My final pick of the week (most likely--check back Sunday AM) is an unusual flyer of a wager based purely on value. There are sportsbooks offering props on which team will score the highest number of points. The usual favorites are Detroit, Buffalo, and Baltimore--all with great offenses. However, I have a feeling that if things break right for the Panthers, they could enjoy their best game of 2024 and highest output of the season this week hosting Dallas. "Meaningless" games can also produce strange results, as offenses with nothing to lose throw caution to the wind. We've seen this happen before--last season in Weeks 15-18 the highest-scoring teams in three of those weeks were the Raiders (56), Browns (37), and Saints (48). Yes, crazy things happen in late season games, especially in matchups with mixed motivations. Theoretically, each NFL team is 32-1 to have the highest point total. The Panthers are priced at 39-1, which is considerably higher than average. We can probably toss out half the teams in the league which are playing badly, injured, and may face bad weather conditions in December. However, Carolina is finally playing well, especially on offense, is at home, is healthy, and faces an opponent coming off a devastating loss on a short week that now must travel with nothing to play for. If Carolina is leading in the second half of this game, I expect they would want to show off a bit and run up the score. Nothing would inspire as much confidence from long-suffering Carolina fans as a big win at home against Dallas, even though the Cowboys aren't the team everyone usually thinks of. Carolina isn't playing like a 3-10 team right now. They've hit 20+ points in 4/5 games. QB B. Young is playing much better late in the season, and could be given an opportunity to show off with a broader playbook and gameplan, that is, if the game breaks correctly for the Panthers. Oh, and let’s add the obvious–Dallas’ defense sucks, allowing 28 PPG this season, which ranks next to last in the NFL. I’m glad to fade a bad defense even though the offense we’re betting on has often struggled with inconsistencies (but remains on an upward trajectory). Obviously, this is a longshot wager; Carolina isn't properly priced here given the unique circumstances of this game. I’d list them around 20-1, at the highest, and we’re getting double that number.
Pick:
Special Prop: Highest Scoring Team Week 15 -- Panthers (+3900)
FINAL PICKS FOR Week 15 (For those who just want the picks):
First-Half Side -- LAR vs. SFO: RAMS +1.5 (-110)...{W}
Full-Game Side -- LAR vs. SFO: RAMS +3 (-120)...{W}
BAL vs. NYG: Ravens RB Henry UNDER 102.5 rushing yards (-115)
BAL vs. NYG: Giants Kicker Gano OVER 4.5 points
NYJ vs. JAX: First-Half: Jaguars +2.5
NYJ vs. JAX: Full Game: Jaguars +3.5 (-120)
KC vs. CLE: Team Total Browns UNDER 20.5 (-120)
PIT vs. PHI: 1st Qtr. Steelers +.5 (half point) {-120)
PIT vs. PHI: Steelers +5.5
PIT vs. PHI: Steelers Kicker Boswell OVER 6.5 points
DAL vs. CAR: Cowboys Kicker Aubrey UNDER 7.5 points (-120)
NWE vs. ARZ: Moneyline Cardinals (-260)
ATL vs. LVR: 1st Half Raiders +3 (-115)
ATL vs. LVR: Raiders Kicker Carlson OVER 6.5 points
Special Prop: Highest Scoring Team Week 15 -- Panthers (+3900)
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