Writer’s Note: This will be my second consecutive season handicapping games and posting picks here at Betcoin.ag. Each week – usually starting on Wednesday and concluding late on Saturday night – I’ll post write-ups on the feature games, with my reasoning for each wager.
The 2025 NFL regular season kicks off this week. Here are three futures wagers I have bet. Odds are subject to change. However, these numbers were still available at both land-based and online sportsbooks.
FUTURES BET #1:
CLEVELAND BROWNS TO WIN THE NFC NORTH AT 33-1
Risking $500 to win $16,500 (collect $17,000)
Don't laugh. Profitable futures betting means looking for underpriced longshots with a logical upside. For all their negatives, the Browns fit that description.
Let's start with some comparative numbers. Cleveland is the longest-shot of any team to win its division in the NFL, and that's by a sizable margin. This means we're getting value simply by virtue of the contrast with other teams of (perceived) similar strength.
Keep in mind, all we just need for the Browns to is WIN THE DIVISION. Not win the CONFERENCE. Or, win the SUPER BOWL. They just need to finish ahead of three other teams. In the volatile NFL, where injuries happen, teams get rebuilt quickly, and there are always a few surprises every season, anything is possible from one year to the next.
Let'e begin with the obvious disclaimers. The Browns have been a really bad organization for a very long time. They're the NFL's punch line. A laughing stock. But that's often a good time to pounce withva contrarian wager. In others words, sell high and buy low. The Browns are priced as a bargain.
BROWNS (POSSIBLE) STRENGTHS:
-- Entering last season (2024), Cleveland was widely regarded as one of the NFL's top-five defenses. The personnel on that side of the ball remains pretty much in place. The Browns endured a terrible season in 2024. The Browns' defense often found themselves out on the field way too many minutes of games. When the offense is so inept they repeatedly go three-and-out and rank among the worst in the league commiting turnovers, defenses inevitably wear down. They get tired. They also give up when falling behind in games. Cleveland's defense is better than it appears, statistically speaking. If the offense shows improvement (they can't get much worse, so the only place to go is up), we'll definitely see improvement with this defensive unit in 2025.
-- Head Coach Kevin Stefanski enters his sixth season with the Browns. That's a long time for someone perceived as a coach who always seems to be on the hot seat, and this is likely his final shot. However, Stefanski's career W-L record isn't nearly as bad as people might think. He's 41-46 (47 percent wins). That's not exactly inspiring. But it's also not worthy of 33-1 odds to turn things around this season. Not that it matters much, but the Browns went 3-0 this preseason, perhaps some hint that things will improve. Stefanski knows this is his last chance. HUGE STAT: This team went 11-6 just two seasons ago (in 2023).
-- The great unknown with this team is journeyman QB Joe Flacco, at age 40. How much is still left in the tank. He's already been announced as the starter, even with four QBs on the roster. Confidence in Flacco may be justified. Recall Flacco's improbable turnaround run just two seasons ago with the 2023 Browns when he took over in midseason than then led them to the playoffs as a wild card entry. Flacco is reportedly popular with his teammates and in the community. That helps his chances of success. Sure, he's not the future for the Browns. But if Flacco plays aanywhere near the 2023 level -- which included 7 wins in the Browns last 9 games, including four straight victories down the stretch -- the Browns may be a surprise contender.
RIVAL COMPARISONS:
Now, let's discuss their three AFC North division rivals:
-- Baltimore is the obvious threat and deserves to be the favorite to repeat. Still, there's something missing with the Ravens. And QB Lamar Jackson, who carries the ball more than any NFL starting QB is one bad hit away from changing the entire dynamics of the AFC North race. I won't argue the Ravens as anything other than a Super Bowl contender. But this is also a volatile team, probably more vulnerable to injury and disruption if they lose either of their two superstars (QB Jackson or RB Henry).
-- Cincinnati scares me. This is a top-three offense that averaged 28 points per game in 2024. Joe Burrow is great QB with plenty of skill players on offense. But the Bengals' defense is horrid (ranked #25 in 2024). And the Bengals didn’t appear to improve themselves much in the offseason. Sure, Cincy is a legitimate contender and could win the division. But this team also has some major question marks. They’re also a notoriously slow-starting team under head coach Zac Taylor's leadership for some reason.
-- Pittsburgh enters 2025 as a fragile unit, led by a washout QB (Aaron Rodgers) who hasn't played a decent game in nearly three years, This might be coach Mike Tomlin's weakest roster collection since taking over in Pittsburgh 18 years ago. Pittsburgh merits credit and respect for their organization and consistent overachievement under Tomlin (often with only average talent). That said, I do expect the Steelers to take a step back this season, with a losing record and a fourth-place finish.
PROBLEMS / COUNTERARGUMENTS:
Cleveland plays a murderous early-season schedule. The Browns face four straight Super Bowl contenders in September. If they can somehow split and go 2-2, this team is very live to improve from there. I count seven games where the Browns could possibly be favored (based on early season odds). The schedule becomes much more navigable starting in October. If they can split with their division rivals and pull off a few early upsets, I see the Browns at possibly 8-6 going into the final two weeks versus rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. A record of 10-6 (and certainly 11-5) could win this tough division where every team beats up the opponents.
INTANGIBLES:
To give some idea how much value 33-1 odds is on any team to win a division (and remember–the NFL can be very unpredictable), compare the other longshot division winning futures prices prices on the presumptive last-place finishers: NY Jets at +1800; NY Giants at +2200 (the Browns are considered longer shots than the Giants!); LV Raiders at +1700 (in a brutally tough division). So, we're getting nearly twice the odds when compared with some of these other improbable longshots.
SUMMATION:
Obviously, we need several things to go right, and a miracle would be nice, too. But the potential parts are in place -- including a veteran head coach in his last-chance season; a potential top-five ranked defense; a former Super Bowl winning QB with proven winning results the last time he was the starter; an impressive 11-6 record just two seasons ago; QB Deshaun Watson, formally a major distraction, no longer an issue; great payout odds at 33-1.
FUTURES BET #2:
GREEN BAY PACKERS TO WIN THE NFC NORTH AT +180
Risking $2,000 to win $3,600 (collect $5,600)
Green Bay finished 11-6 last season and made it to the playoffs as a wild card. They lost a tough game 22-10 in the playoffs to eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia. My view is the Packers will be at least as good in 2025, and perhaps significantly better. Meanwhile, the two bona fide contenders ahead of them from last year arguably declined in talent during this off-season. Green Bay looks to be a bargain at +180 to win the NFC North, which is certainly an above-average division in team quality.
PACKERS (POSSIBLE) STRENGTHS:
-- Let's start with a winning organization. The Packers have been solid for 20+ years. Green Bay has a winning tradition. Head Coach Matt LaFleur enters his 7th season with the Packers, packing one of the best winning percentages of any NFL head coach. Chalk up a 67-33 record for his career (67 pct. wins). He's won the division three of his six years with the team. I also like stability with the OC and DC -- Adam Stenavich begins his fourth season as offensive coordinator. Jeff Hafley begins his second year as the team's defensive coordinator. Winners and stability. I like that in a team getting my money.
-- Interesting betting numbers: The O/U on season win totals for rival Detroit is 10.5 (vig -140 to the UNDER). The O/U on season win totals for Green Bay is also 10.5 (vig -120 to the UNDER). So, Green Bay is actually slightly superior in public and betting expectation. But, I found +180 on the division-win price. Detroit is now +175. I'll discuss the other two teams later in this write-up.
-- QB Jordan Love (age 26) enters his third full season as the starter, usually a good spot for star players under contract. Love signed a record-breaking long-term deal last season, so he's with this team for awhile. The Packers are constructing the team around his talents. Add RB Josh Jacobs, who ranked 3rd in the NFL in production (only behind Barkley and Henry). He's 27, in his prime. Experts rate Green Bay's offense at #7, obviously behind Detroit (perhaps #1). Combined with an improved defense, that might be enough to win 11 or 12 games and take the division crown.
-- Defensively is where Green Bay may separate themselves from the pack (see what I did there?). Last season, the Packers' defense showed significant improvement under the new DC Hafley, finishing in the NFL's top six in both points surrendered and yards allowed. Now, they get an All-Pro defensive lineman added to the mix, a team leader, and perhaps a game changer with the addition of Micah Parsons. Twice, he's finished among the top three in voting for the "Defensive Player of the Year" award, and is easily one of the best defensive players in the NFL.
GRADING THE OPPOSITION:
-- Detroit could be in for a decline this season, and possibly a significant fall. Bad news--the Lions lost both coordinators (OC and DC) in the offseason, who took other coaching jobs. They also lost two starters from the offensive line, including the center. Detroit's defense was exposed badly down the stretch last season, and surrendered 31+ points in 4 of their final 6 games (injuries were admittedly a problem). It's tough to see where Detroit improved in the offseason. While this team is still dangerous and can outscore any opponent, the window on reaching the Super Bowl may be closing in Detroit.
-- Minnesota was a major surprise in 2024, but now is projected at O/U 9.5 wins, heavily jaded to the UNDER. Problem is -- Minnesota comes in with major question marks at QB (unknown talent JJ McCarthy will start--he became the first quarterback taken in the first round to miss his entire rookie season with an injury). Vikings are listed at +385 to win the division. I don't see how that happens. Some fear the Vikings defense could be right there with the Packers does give Minnesota some positives.
-- Chicago is still the Bears. Enough said. We keep hearing this is the year Chicago turns things around. Nope. Not with a rookie head coach, a #28-ranked offense, a #27-ranked defense, and inconsistent Caleb Williams at QB. Bears win projection is O/U 8.5, which seems ridiculously high. But if DET and MIN falter, this team might inch up the division ladder.
INTANGIBLES:
Las Vegas-based handicapper Denny Axel (one of the best futures bettors I know--with verifiable results to prove it dating back 30 seasons) shared some interesting Packers-related info with me and on social media. He noted that while the NFC North teams will play the NFC East and AFC North this season (two very tough divisions), Green Bay has the huge advantage --in stark contrast with Detroit-- of playing all the tougher opponents at HOME. They get WASH and PHI at Lambeau. They also get CIN and BAL at Lambeau. This advantage could be worth an extra win, especially given Green Bay's stellar home record the last five seasons....31 wins and 11 losses.
ODDS AND PRICING:
Prior to the big Parsons trade, Green Bay wasn't on my radar screen. This just seemed like a wild card level team, probably destined to finish second behind Detroit. But Parsons may be a game changer and a major piece of the missing puzzle for the Packers. The trade also reveals management's mindset that this could be an all-or-nothing season for Green Bay, since two future first-draft choices were sacrificed. Even after the blockbuster trade deal with Dallas, Green Bay remained as high as +190 to win the NFC North. I tried to pounce on that number and nearly busted through orange construction cones to drive to MGM (Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas) and scalp the book. By the time I got there, it was pounded down to +170 by a sizable number of wagers. I also saw Westgate listed at +165. Fortunately, I found William Hill at +180, which is a very good number. Hence, I'm locked in now with a $2,000 wager at WH for the Packers to win the NFC North. There are also some hedging opportunities with this team late in the season. Hopefully, that won't be necessary.
FUTURES BET #3:
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS TO WIN THE NFC AT +900
Risking $2,000 to win $18,000 (collect $20,000)
This was the toughest decision for me of any futures bet. I already loved San Francisco to rebound and perform well in 2025. The question was -- where precisely do I put the money? On which futures bet do I chose? Over 10.5 wins? Maybe. To win the division? That's +160. To make the playoffs? That's -190. To win the Super Bowl? I've seen prices range from +1200 to +2000 (the best value now appears to be +1800). To win the conference? That number ranges from +600 to +900 (...+900 which is what I got.). Tough decision.
I decided "to win the conference" offers optimal +EV. I admit to also being influenced by last season's success with the Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC ticket (earning $40,000 at +305 odds late in the season). Sure, I could have doubled that net win by wagering them to win the Super Bowl, but I'd rather make those major swing-variance decisions later. Let's win the other stuff, first. So, "to win the conference" it is.
San Francisco comes off a terrible 6-11 season and fourth-place finish (but also gets to play a last-place schedule), which is why this team ranks behind the NFC's favorites -- Detroit, Philadelphia, and (now) Green Bay. But they're every bit as solid in every aspect (offense, defense, coaching), and there are special considerations that give the 49ers major upside potential in 2025:
NINERS (POSSIBLE) STRENGTHS:
-- Top of the list.....this is a winning organization. No need to elaborate. Let's also remember, San Francisco went 12-5 just two seasons ago (in 2023) and took the Chiefs into overtime, before losing the Super Bowl. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan has gone to the Super Bowl three times (including once as the OC in Atlanta). Add four conference championship appearances in just the last six seasons. So, he tends to get near the dance when his teams remain healthy. The 49ers have consistently rebounded well coming off bad seasons in the Shanahan era. Let's also note the 49ers' two dismal seasons for Shanahan's 49ers happened when they were decimated by injuries. Last season was a disaster. San Francisco ranked as one of the most injured teams (starters missing games, called the "SIC Score"). They were second in the NFL for most injuries. This season, the 49ers come in far more healthy.
-- One of the biggest reasons I'm high on the 49ers this season is the return of DC Robert Saleh, who was fired as NY Jets coach last season. As previous coordinator, Saleh had turned the 49ers into one of the league's best, and now he's reunited with Shanahan in San Francisco. I think this addition is huge. Saleh is regarded as one of the best defensive minds in the game. Before we criticize his Jets' record, look at his numbers (he was the head coach, but had big impact on defense): Saleh's Jets ranked first in passing yards allowed per game (178.9) and opponent yards per play (4.7), second in total defense (301.7) and sixth in opponent yards per rush (4.1). IMHO, only Fangio and Flores are in Saleh's league as a DC.
-- QB Brock Purdy enters his third full season as the starter. He's 23-13 over his career. Despite a horrible season for SFO as a team in 2024, Purdy still ranked #7 in passer ratings among all quarterbacks. A career 64-27 TD-INT ratio and 104.9 QBR is one of the best in the NFL. Add the weapons of a healthy supporting cast, and this unit should be able to improve upon last year's W-L record. Stats wise, this unit was very good even with injuries -- ranking #4 in YPG and #3 in YPP. Some concern about receiver corps entering this season, but Shanahan has a history of working with offenses and getting results, when his team stays healthy.
INTANGLIBLES:
This is HUGE. The 49ers are coming off a last-place finish in the NFC West, but that sets them up with the NFL's easiest 2025 schedule. Incredibly, they do not play any of the league's eight pre-season Super Bowl favorites (Ravens, Lions, Eagles, Bills, Chiefs, Packers, Bengals, Commanders) and have numerous attractive matchups against lowly-ranked NFC South and AFC South teams. In fact, the combined winning percentages of ALL the Niners' opponents last season is just 41 percent wins, again -- giving the 49ers the huge advantage of the easiest schedule to face.
Comparatively, Philadelphia and Detroit (the top two NFC favorites) have very tough schedules. Assuming SFO is in the hunt for the division crown, they may have the easiest route to a top-seed and a first round bye. Assuming DET falters (I expect they'll decline this season--for reasons expressed previously in this article) and PHI experiences a Super Bowl hangover (which is common), that leaves a team like SFO in great position to post 11+ wins and seize the favorite role to reach the Super Bowl in the NFC. Again, the pedigree is there as this team and staff were the NFC champions just 20 months ago.
SUMMATION:
We have a motivated team coming off a disappointing season, a solid organization, a proven head coach, a winning QB entering his third full season, a healthy team with good skill players, one of the best DCs in the game, and we're getting 9-1 odds for this team to reach the Super Bowl in a conference where the two favorites may not be quite up to last season's numbers. Add the creampuff schedule, and San Francisco appears to be one of the best, if not the best value in the "conference winner" futures category.
Nolan Dalla can be contacted at: [email protected]
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