2024 NFL GAME WRITE UPS AND PICKS: CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

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2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:

WINS — 145

LOSSES — 134

PUSH — 4

NET WIN/LOSS — -$1030

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-7 (-$75)

STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000

CURRENT BANKROLL: $8,970

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)


LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 20):

Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 20 REPORT HERE
Full-Game Side: Kansas City -8.5 W
Moneyline: Kansas City (-455) W
Player Prop: KC QB Mahomes will throw an interception--NO (-115) W
Full-Game Side: Washington +9 W
Game Prop: Washington to score first and win the game (+650) L
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-120) W
Player Prop: WAS QB Daniels OVER 232.5 passing yards (-115) W
Full-Game Total: LAR-PHI UNDER 44 L
Player Prop: LAR QB Stafford to throw an interception--YES (-125) L
Player Prop: LAR WR Nacua UNDER 2.5 rushing yards (-120) W
First-Half Total: BAL-BUF UNDER 24.5 L
Full-Game Total: BAL-BUF UNDER 51.5 L
Player Prop: BAL RB Henry OVER 19.5 rushing attempts (-120) L
Player Prop: BAL RB Henry OVER 110 rushing yards (+143) L

THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Conference Championships)

— NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: COMMANDERS VS. EAGLES —

  • One useful tool for picking NFL winners is watching midweek line movement. This Sunday's NFC Championship Game is a perfect example of breaking information impacting the point spread -- as it becomes more widely known to the public. The current line is up 1.5 points since the opening spread was released as Philadelphia -4.5. The Eagles are now a -6 point favorite hosting Washington. The number is staying put, for now.
    This most important news item impacting the line is Eagles' quarterback Jalen Hurts’s left knee injury. If he's at or near 100 percent to play, expect the line to remain at -6. However, if there are indications Hurts is not close to being fully healthy at gametime, this line will certainly drop, and could even move significantly. Recall, Hurts was injured on a rough tackle during last week's victory, but didn't miss any action. He also suffered a concussion in Week 16 that kept him out of the final two games of the regular season. The Eagles' backup QB is Kenny Pickett, who replaced Hurts for most of the previous PHI-WAS game, in which the Eagles lost 36-33.

  • Right now, the Eagles are saying as little as possible about Hurts' condition. Closer to game time, "reports" will come out. That news could impact the line. Early indications point to Hurts being the starter and playing with little or no risks. In fact, the early line shift from -4.5 to -6 reveals betting market perception that Hurts will be fine. As kickoff approaches, later in the week, any line movement towards the Commanders, the underdog, likely says much more than anything and should be factored into your decision--if you bet on this game.

Angles – All pointing to Philadelphia: In other developments, here are some betting angles I've plucked from various sources, all of which suggest fading Washington this week (credit: Covers.com):

-- Away teams with 13+ wins on the season in the conference championship.....2-8 ATS, and 1-9 SU

-- Away conference championship teams coming off an underdog win....5-8 ATS, and 4-9 SU

-- Conference championship road dogs that have the greater points/game margin than their present opponent....3-7 ATS, and 3-7 SU

-- Interesting trend--all teams after playing Detroit the last two seasons have gone 11-22-1 ATS, and 14-20 SU. Away dogs after playing the Lions the past two years.....1-5-1 ATS, and 1-6 SU

[From these angles, I take it that teams that have exceeded expectations and come off a big upset win can't maintain the momentum in the next game. Playing Detroit and trying to slow down the Lions offense also takes a tough toll in the following game.]

Full Disclosure: I'm not betting on this game so far as a side because I already have a sizable future wager on the Eagles to win the NFC Championship. When handicapping, we must try to remain as impartial as possible, though that's not really possible for anyone because we all carry biases. Given the stakes, I won't post any official picks on the side (which will be counted on the record attached to this page). However, I will offer these thoughts and picks based on some props:

Moneyline--Washington +240….worth a flyer?: My initial reaction.....this number looks too high. A solid argument can be made that the Commanders have played better over the past five weeks than the Eagles and since their previous meeting. Certainly, Washington's offense has been far more consistent, both in yardage and points scored. On the other hand, Philadelphia has performed much better defensively. At most, I'd make this moneyline somewhere around WAS +180. As previously noted, I always have a big bet on Philadelphia to win, but Washington looks like an exceptional value priced at +240 if I was capping this game independent of other wagering and rooting interest.

Washington +6 looks like an ideal spread to balance action: I wouldn't touch this line, as is, but definitely would advise jumping on the Commanders plus the points if there's any indication QB Hurts is struggling this week in practice and/or has lost any mobility. If Hurts can't run the ball effectively, the Eagles' aren't quite the same threat on offense and the Commanders defense can focus more on stopping or slowing down RB Barkley, assuming that's possible. If Hurts is near 100 percent, the Eagles might be worth playing, especially at -6 or less. One concern for the Commanders this week is playing a 4th straight road game. That's a grueling schedule to overcome for any team. Meanwhile, the Eagles are playing their fifth straight home game, which also seems like a huge advantage. Though data is scarce, road dogs on their 4th-straight away game are 1-5-1 ATS and 0-7 SU the past 20 seasons.

Game Total….O/U: 47.5: This number could change based on weather, though I'm not sure conditions really matter much. Last week, I touted the UNDER and got hammered when the Eagles-Rams game lit up the scoreboard for 50 points in a heavy snow storm. Unless it's very windy, I doubt weather will be much of a factor. However, we have seen the Eagles win in freezing conditions. The Commanders have yet to play any game in adverse conditions. We really don't know what to expect from them in such conditions. After getting burned on several UNDERs late in the season, my lean is OVER this number. The NFL wants higher scoring games, and that has to be baked into any decision.

Player Prop–Jayden Daniels O/U 32.5 pass attempts: Given WAS QB Daniels' passing stats during their current winning streak, OVER 32.5 pass attempts looks like one of the best player props on the board. Look at Daniels' number pass attempts since returning from a brief injury in early Nov. -- 31-35-36-39-31-30-38-32-34 (I'm disregarding the final game of the season in which Daniels played only a few series). All of these numbers are around or above the target, and since Washington won all of the most recent games, that also reduced the number of attempts late in the game. Keep in mind that QBs on teams leading in the game tend to not throw many passes in the final few series, opting for the run. If we assume from the spread Washington will be trailing in the 4th quarter, the OVER on attempts looks even stronger. Hence, Daniels is likely to pass roughly the same number of times (averaging out to 34 attempts per game), plus whatever passing might happen late in the 4Q. Last week, Rams' QB Stafford attempted 44 passes and the offense moved the ball effectively during much of the game. I doubt if Daniels reaches that number, but its an indication of what to expect with Daniels and the game plan.

Player Prop–Jake Elliot O/U 6.5 points: Eagles placekicker Elliot has been ripped for his inexplicable extra point misses in the postseason (3 misses, so far). That now gives us some value on a prop that otherwise might be listed at 7.5 (given PHI scoring and the spread in this game, 7.5 would be the standard kicker point total). I foresee Elliot getting back to normal this week. He missed just one XP all season. Elliot has also been perfect on FGs, going 6/6 in the postseason. So, it's doubtful any trust will be lost in his abilities. The Eagles' put forth a strange explanation for Elliot's XP misses, which almost cost them in the Rams' game, pointing out they came after RB Barkley scored on long TD runs, and Elliot wasn't sufficiently warmed up. I know this excuse seems absurd, but I also doubt that will happen again. Elliot doesn't rank among the best kickers in the league, but he's also not as bad as public perception is making this to be. I expect the Eagles to score points and Elliot to get enough attempts to reach the 7+ on his point total. Note the lay price is -130 on the OVER.

First Quarter Spread -- PHI -1.5: Midway through the season, I started fading the Eagles in the 1Q. Even though they were winning games, Philadelphia started virtually all of its games slowly. There was even a streak when the Eagles failed to score a 1Q touchdown for several weeks in a row. Few bettors caught onto this oddity, as PHI was almost always laying points, despite ranking near the bottom in 1Q productivity. However, these slow starts have now been fixed as the Eagles have led in 4 of last 5 games after the 1H--and were tied in the other. Now, it's Washington that's the slow-starting team. Even though the Commanders are enjoying a win streak, they've trailed in 4 of last 5 games--and were tied in the other. Strange how these teams have completely reversed the way they approach the early part of games. No team intends to start slowly, but there is an element of game planning in the 1Q very different from later in the game, and some teams are simply hot or cold coming out of the locker room. This all leads me to lean on PHI starting strongly again at home, laying -1.5. The moneyline price at -185 is too high on the Eagles, but I'll go with Philadelphia to score on at least one early drive and take the first frame.

Game Prediction: Philadelphia 30, Washington 20
Once again, here are the picks for this game:
Player Prop: WAS QB Daniels OVER 32.5 pass attempts (-115)
Player Prop: PHI PK Jake Elliot OVER 6.5 points (-130)
First-Quarter Side: Philadelphia -1.5

Adding:
PHI RB Barkely OVER 23.5 on longest rush (-135)
Betting Barkley props is tricky because anything wager on the OVERs comes at an inflated number. Everyone knows Barkley is a beast and is going to get the ball, evidenced by a crazy high rushing yardage O/U which is currently 130.5 and listed at 24.5 attempts. Perhaps there's some value in fading these numbers inflated by public sentiment, but I can't go against him the way he's performing. Where some value does appear to exist is in the longest rush by Barkely, which is a very bettable 23.5. So, we need just one long run of 24+ yards to cash a winning ticket. Barkley broke two 70+ runs last week. Now, he faces the Commanders defense ranking #32 (dead last) in a subcategory called "yards after initial contact." Translation: Barkley is an excellent tackle breaker. Also note that Barkley rushed for 146-150 yards against Washington already this season, which included two breakaways of 39 and 68 yards. This number looks a little low at just 23.5, even with the high vig.

--- AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: BILLS VS. CHIEFS ---

  • History: Since the Mahomes-Allen era began in 2018, Buffalo and Kansas City have played eight times--including three postseason games. They have played to a 4-4 tie, with the Chiefs going 2-1 in Buffalo and the Bills going 3-2 in Kansas City. However, the Chiefs have won all three of the playoff meetings.

Handicapping Approach: This matchup includes a number of recommended wagers which go contrary to statistics and data, much of which suggests taking Buffalo + 2 (and making other positive Buffalo-related props). The Bills certainly look like a team on a mission, currently on a roll, built for the playoffs, and winning games by sizable margins. Contrast this with the Chiefs, who look like a team lucky to be here. Rarely have we seen any team win so many flukey games in a season, seemingly getting the perfect break at the ideal time just when they needed a missed field goal...or a turnover....or a questionable personal foul called on the opposition. Of course, it's also ridiculous to call any two-time defending Super Bowl champion, with a 16-2 W-L record, that's also 9-0 straight up at home this season "lucky."

Home Field Advantage is Huge: I'm giving added weight to Kansas City's perfect home record, and obvious edge at Arrowhead. Contrast this with Buffalo, which was a very mediocre 5-4 on the road this season.

Intangibles: What really compels me to bet the Chiefs is their ability to get the right break or create the ideal situation just when it's needed most. Some bettors complain the Chiefs (and and QB Mahomes) get preferential treatment from officiating crews. I'm not quite convinced this is true, but I'm also not convinced such a thing isn't happening, either. Mahomes does get lots of flags tossed in his favor, and some of those calls by officials have killed the opposition. Contrast this with BUF QB Allen, who runs more than Mahomes and is more physical, but who rarely gets a late flag or protection from a "late hit" or "unnecessary roughness." I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I believe bettors have to factor this into any Chiefs'-related wager, especially in a huge game like this. Maybe it's just that Mahomes and the Chiefs are great at acting or working the officials--whatever it is, it's working. I'm betting Kansas City -2. I’m adding the Chiefs on the moneyline, as well (priced at -125).

Now, on to some props; okay, more like -- just one prop:
Kareem Hunt OVER 34.5 rushing yards: The Chiefs mostly use a split backfield, with Hunt and Pacheco splitting roughly equal time. The limited number of carries makes the stats on both backs look very average. However, K. Hunt has been a solid big-game ball carrier and should get enough carries to push his yardage total above a low number, which currently stands at 34.5. Hunt saw far more carries early in the season averaging about 20 per game in Weeks 4-11. Since then, his attempts have been cut in half. Last week, Hunt took 8 carries for a 5.5 YPC average, which is probably a minimum low for what we can expect in this game. The Chiefs' game plan must keep the Bills defense honest and while Mahomes might throw more than 50 percent of the time, we should still expect at least at least 26 rushing attempts (KC's season average) which probably sets up around 10 carries for Hunt -- and more than that if the Chiefs are ahead late in the game. Important Stat: It's important to note that the alt. back Pacheco produced very lackluster numbers the last four weeks during KC's offensive resurgence with just 20 carries in the last three games, for a really bad 3.2 YPC average. I expect given the choice between the RBs, Hunt is going to get the ball more in this game, which makes going OVER more likely.

Final Thoughts: I tried to find something on the menu I thought had value beyond these two wagers. I see a few leans, but nothing that stands out and worth betting. For example, I lean towards BUF QB Allen to go UNDER 48.5 rushing yards, as he's exceeded that O/U in just 5/19 games this season. However, given the higher stakes of this game, Allen will out everything on the field this Sunday. So, the data suggests going UNDER, though I'm going to pass. I could list more situations with conflicting opinion, but I'll leave it at that and go with just two wagers on this game.

Game Prediction: Kansas City 27, Buffalo 24
Once again, here are the picks for this game:
Full-Game Side: Kansas City -2
Moneyline: Kansas City -125
Player Prop: KC RB Hunt OVER 34.5 rushing yards


Final Picks for Conference Championships (For those who just want the picks):

Player Prop: WAS QB Daniels OVER 32.5 pass attempts (-115)
Player Prop: PHI PK Jake Elliot OVER 6.5 points (-130)
Player Prop: PHI RB Barkely OVER 23.5 on longest rush (-135)
First-Quarter Side: Philadelphia -1.5
Full-Game Side: Kansas City -2
Moneyline: Kansas City -125
Player Prop: KC RB Hunt OVER 34.5 rushing yards



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